Employment crisis, in 7 years only 10 lakh job opportunities could be created annually

 

The Indian economy has been a victim of slowdown since the year 2017-18. For three consecutive years, the pace of GDP continued to slow down and then the terrible decline of last year. In such a situation, the question naturally arises in the mind that what is the condition of our job market. The government report answers this to some extent, but there are many gaps in it.

 

According to the latest report of the Quarterly Employment Survey released by the Union Labor Ministry this week, in the first quarter (April to June 2021) of the financial year 2021-22, employment in select nine non-farm sectors increased by 29 percent to 3.08 crore. This figure, which appears to be effective at first glance, loses its brightness slightly when it is clear that this number is compared to the figures given during the 2013-14 Economic Census. Then the number of employment was recorded at 2.37 crore. That is, if we look at the truth being told by the data, then the exact conclusion is not that there has been a 29 percent increase in employment. The appropriate conclusion would be that only one million jobs could be created annually during these seven years.

 

Anyway, the Indian economy has been a victim of slowdown since the year 2017-18. For three consecutive years, the pace of GDP continued to slow down and then the terrible decline of last year. In such a situation, the question naturally arises in the mind that what is the condition of our job market. The government report answers this to some extent, but there are many gaps in it. So we match this demand based estimate with the labor supply estimate based on the central government's household survey and then the picture emerges of shortage of non-farm employment. Both the annual and quarterly reports of the Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) confirm the decline in job quality. Although demand and supply side projections should not be compared with each other since they have different durations, but still they give an idea of ​​what is the scene on the employment front.



The PLFS annual report (July 2019 to June 2020) shows that since 2018 the employment pattern has shifted towards agriculture and informal sectors. Only urban trends are covered in the quarterly reports of PLFS. The latest report (October to December 2020) confirms that there has been a reduction in fixed salary jobs. Salary jobs were recorded at 48.7 per cent in the October-December 2020 period, down from 52.7 per cent in the April-June 2020 period with strict lockdown. The unemployment rate between October and December 2020 was also 10.3 per cent, much higher than the same period in 2019 (7.9 per cent). It is clear from all this that there is a crisis of employment in India. In view of this, the first requirement is that all the data should be released regularly. Without these, making policies becomes like shooting an arrow in the dark. Second, we need a much larger industrial manufacturing sector. The government accepts this second point. He must also accept the first requirement.